We are pleased to announce the publication of the peer-reviewed article “Hydrodynamic modeling and risk assessment of surge events in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea” in the journal Natural Hazards (2026, Volume 122, Article 124). doi: 10.1007/s11069-025-07889-7.
This research is the result of cooperation between teams from Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), a research center, the Republican State Enterprise Kazhydromet, and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, reinforcing the LESLIE mission of connecting academic excellence with applied solutions for environmental risk management in Central Asia.
The Caspian Sea is undergoing long-term level decline while also experiencing recurrent wind-driven surges that can rapidly shift coastlines and disrupt navigation, port operations, and coastal infrastructure in Kazakhstan—especially along the shallow, low-gradient northeastern sector. Using historical observations from the national monitoring network, the authors analyzed 1,836 surge events recorded in the Kazakh sector (1940–2022), including 1,086 up-surges and 750 down-surges, and characterised their seasonality and associated wind patterns.
The authors explicitly acknowledge the contribution of the Erasmus+ CBHE project LESLIE (ERASMUS-EDU-2023-CBHE No. 101129032) in disseminating the research results, underlining the project’s role in amplifying high-impact scientific outputs and their uptake by stakeholders. The article is published open access under a Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).
Reference
Yeltay, A.G., Sairov, S.B., Tillakarim, T.A., Serikbay, N.T., Rakishev, D.B., Rodrigo-Clavero, M-E., Rodrigo-Ilarri, J. (2026). Hydrodynamic modeling and risk assessment of surge events in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea. Natural Hazards, 122:124. doi: 10.1007/s11069-025-07889-7.
