We are pleased to announce the recent publication of a scientific article co-authored by LESLIE participants and collaborators from leading academic and research institutions in Kazakhstan, Greece, and Spain. The paper, entitled “Reaction of Minimal Streamflow to Natural Factors in the Context of Climate Uncertainty” has been published in the prestigious journal Water Resources Management (Springer, 2025).
Access the publication (Open Access via ResearchGate)
About the Study
The research investigates long-term changes (1940–2021) in minimal streamflow across the Zhaiyk-Caspian Water Management Basin, one of the most hydrologically and economically important regions of Western Kazakhstan. Drawing on extensive hydrometeorological data, the study characterizes the evolution of low-flow regimes under two climatic phases: a stabilization period (pre-1973) and a climate change period (1974–2021).
The methodology combines hydrological and statistical analyses to evaluate key indicators such as:
- Minimal monthly discharge
- Duration of summer-autumn and winter low-flow periods
- Soil freezing depth and thaw frequency
- Changes in precipitation and air temperature
Main Findings
Winter low flows have increased significantly (up to 5.2 times) in several rivers, due to shallower frost depth and more frequent thaw periods, which enhance groundwater contributions to baseflow.
Conversely, summer-autumn low flows have declined in many sub-basins, with some rivers experiencing complete desiccation, driven by reduced precipitation and higher air temperatures.
The duration of the low-flow period has extended in many areas, and the frequency of zero-flow conditions has increased sharply—posing challenges for water availability, biodiversity, and local communities.
The soil freezing depth has decreased by ~10 cm (−9%), while thaw events have become longer and more frequent, confirming a regional warming trend with hydrological consequences.
Relevance for Sustainable Water Management
These insights are highly relevant for the development of adaptive water resource planning strategies in arid and semi-arid regions. The methodological framework applied in the study can support:
- Early warning systems for hydrological drought
- Improved estimation of baseflow under climate change
- Design of climate-resilient water allocation policies
This contribution also highlights the importance of integrating scientific research into higher education and professional training, which is a cornerstone of the Erasmus+ CBHE LESLIE project.
